Whither the Republicans?

A little over a year ago, I discussed the prospects for the Republicans: How does a party with a base that orients older, Christian, anti-gay and anti-nonwhite (please note that is not as an indictment of all Repubs, only a large chunk) survive in a country that’s becoming increasingly gay friendly, predominantly Hispanic and atheist/unaffiliated.
Since then, I’ve linked to several articles (which I can’t find the links to just now) arguing that the Republicans will survive. One argument is that they’ll moderate their policies to stay in the game, no matter how unlikely that seems now. Another is that they’ll simply shift gears: If Hispanics become acceptable, they’ll find some other minority to target (similar to how past threats to the White Race faded without ending white racial fears). Thinking it over, I suspect both positions are right: Republicans will shift on some points, stand firm on others:
•Gay rights. I’m pretty sure that if I live as long as I hope to, I’ll see Republicans embrace gay marriage. Anti-gay activism won’t disappear but it’ll become a fringe rather than mainstream, as unthinkable as openly endorsing a return to Jim Crow. Support for gay rights is so overwhelming among people 30 and under, I don’t think there’s any way the Repubs can keep it up (or will even want to).
•Hispanics. I suspect that likewise I’ll die seeing Latinos lumped in with white people. Anti-immigration fever may still be around, but they’ll fixate on some other threat to racial purity.
•Blacks. White/black issues run deeper than any other racial questions in America. While I think we’ll see continuing improvement, I suspect the racial gap is woven deeper than can be knitted back together in my lifetime. Partly because it’s wrapped up with so much about America’s past that many people would rather not think of.
•Feminism. Women will keep making gains and the right will keep pushing back (as I’ve noted before). A patriarchal system is just too important to too many people, it affects too many people (equal rights for women change more people’s lives than gay marriage—and for some people, that’s not a good thing) and unlike homophobia, it’s not shifting that much as the generations change. And even having successful women on the right (Michele Bachman, SE Cupp, Condoleeza Rice) doesn’t disturb the underlying paradigm (they can be written off as outliers, or as specially chosen by God, and therefore an exception).
•Religion. I’m not sure on this one. The role of religion has shifted, ebbed and flowed in public life over the decades. At the moment, for a large chunk of evangelicals, the measure of their godliness is how Republican they are. Will their be enough of a base to keep Republicans wedded to conservative Christianity in years to come? Or will they shift? And how will the change in core issues (even among younger evangelicals, there’s higher support for gay marriage) affect the link? I guess we’ll see.
•Economy. I doubt we’ll see much of a change on this one. Deregulation will remain a passion, ditto union-busting, increasing power to corporations—hell, it will probably be even more mainstream in 30 years (I do hope I’m wrong on that one).
Time will tell how good a precog I am.